Strong time dependence of ocean acidification mitigation by atmospheric carbon dioxide removal

In Paris in 2015, the global community agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 ∘C, aiming at even 1.5 ∘C. It is still uncertain whether these targets are sufficient to preserve marine ecosystems and prevent a severe alteration of marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, we show that stringent mitigation strategies consistent with the 1.5 ∘C scenario could, indeed, provoke a critical difference for the ocean’s carbon cycle and calcium carbonate saturation states. Favorable conditions for calcifying organisms like tropical corals and polar pteropods, both of major importance for large ecosystems, can only be maintained if CO2 emissions fall rapidly between 2025 and 2050, potentially requiring an early deployment of CO2 removal techniques in addition to drastic emissions reduction. Furthermore, this outcome can only be achieved if the terrestrial biosphere remains a carbon sink during the entire 21st century

Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: An integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading

Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts

Inkomensongelijkheid naar migratieachtergrond.

Hervorming Sociale Regelgevin

The role of peatland degradation, protection and restoration for climate change mitigation in the SSP scenarios

Peatlands only cover a small fraction of the global land surface (∼3%) but store large amounts of carbon (∼600 GtC). Drainage of peatlands for agriculture results in the decomposition of organic matter, leading to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As a result, degraded peatlands are currently responsible for 2%–3% of global anthropogenic emissions. Preventing further degradation of peatlands and restoration (i.e. rewetting) are therefore important for climate change mitigation. In this study, we show that land-use change in three SSP scenarios with optimistic, recent trends, and pessimistic assumptions leads to peatland degradation between 2020 and 2100 ranging from −7 to +10 Mha (−23% to +32%), and a continuation or even an increase in annual GHG emissions (−0.1 to +0.4 GtCO2-eq yr−1). In default mitigation scenarios without a specific focus on peatlands, peatland degradation is reduced due to synergies with forest protection and afforestation policies. However, this still leaves large amounts of GHG emissions from degraded peatlands unabated, causing cumulative CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2100 in an SSP2-1.5 °C scenario of 73 GtCO2. In a mitigation scenario with dedicated peatland restoration policy, GHG emissions from degraded peatlands can be reduced to nearly zero without major effects on projected land-use dynamics. This underlines the opportunity of peatland protection and restoration for climate change mitigation and the need to synergistically combine different land-based mitigation measures. Peatland location and extent estimates vary widely in the literature; a sensitivity analysis implementing various spatial estimates shows that especially in tropical regions degraded peatland area and peatland emissions are highly uncertain. The required protection and mitigation efforts are geographically unequally distributed, with large concentrations of peatlands in Russia, Europe, North America and Indonesia (33% of emission reductions are located in Indonesia). This indicates an important role for only a few countries that have the opportunity to protect and restore peatlands with global benefits for climate change mitigation

Moving toward Net-Zero Emissions Requires New Alliances for Carbon Dioxide Removal

The 1.5 degrees C target will require removing at least some of the carbon dioxide (CO2) previously emitted. Knowledge on how this can be done has been increasing, though barriers remain concerning governance, policy, and acceptability. For the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to move beyond an academic debate on CO2 removal (CDR), a broader alliance of research and policy communities, industry, and the public is needed

A Multi-model Analysis of Post-2020 Mitigation Efforts of Five Major Economies

This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan and USA) in the context of the 2 degrees C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2 degrees C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on enduse efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non-CO2 emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors

Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

To halt climate change this century, we must reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities to net zero. Any emission sources, such as in the energy or land-use sectors, must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Projections of demand for large-scale CDR are based on an integrated scenario framework for emission scenarios composed of emission profiles as well as alternative socio-economic development trends and social values consistent with them. The framework, however, was developed years before systematic reviews of CDR entered the literature. This primer provides an overview of the purposes of scenarios in climate-change research and how they are used. It also introduces the integrated scenario framework and why it came about. CDR studies using the scenario framework, as well as its limitations, are discussed. Possible future developments for the scenario framework are highlighted, especially in relation to CDR

Experimental characterization of the active and passive fast-ion H-alpha emission in W7-X using FIDASIM

This paper presents the first results from the analysis of Balmer-alpha spectra at Wendelstein 7-X which contain the broad charge exchange emission from fast-ions. The measured spectra are compared to synthetic spectra predicted by the FIDASIM code, which has been supplied with the 3D magnetic fields from VMEC, 5D fast-ion distribution functions from ASCOT, and a realistic Neutral Beam Injection geometry including beam particle blocking elements. Detailed modeling of the beam emission shows excellent agreement between measured beam emission spectra and predictions. In contrast, modeling of beam halo radiation and Fast-Ion H-Alpha signals (FIDA) is more challenging due to strong passive contributions. While about 50% of the halo radiation can be attributed to passive signals from edge neutrals, the FIDA emission—in particular for an edge-localized line of sights—is dominated by passive emission. This is in part explained by high neutral densities in the plasma edge and in part by edge-born fast-ion populations as demonstrated by detailed modeling of the edge fast-ion distribution